At a glance
- A Theory of Change clarifies how climate‑adaptation actions lead to desired outcomes, making assumptions and pathways explicit.
- It links short‑term activities to long‑term resilience goals, helping coordinate projects and avoid maladaptation.
- It supports shared learning and reflection, strengthening climate‑aware and responsive practice across teams.
The need for new thinking in climate adaptation
Adaptation to climate change requires a change in how we think, act, plan and implement. Using a 'theory of change' (ToC) – which is now a common planning tool across many areas including climate adaptation – can help you work through this as an individual, team or organisation.
Here we outline the broad process of developing a ToC and resources for developing your own theory of change for projects and programs. Importantly, you can also use this within your organisation to help shift your organisational culture to be more 'climate aware and responsive'
What is a theory of change?
A ToC offers a structured way to describe how a specific initiative is expected to bring about the outcomes it seeks within a given context.
The TOC concept originally developed within the field of evaluation, and it belongs to a broader group of planning and evaluation approaches – such as logic models and theory‑based evaluation – that aim to make more explicit the pathways and conditions for change.
It aims to support understanding of the causal mechanisms behind complex social or community‑level shifts or transformations. Rather than assume that change happens naturally – that desirable outcomes will follow naturally from well‑intentioned action – the approach requires practitioners to spell out the reasoning that links their actions to the results they hope to achieve. This involves identifying assumptions, outlining the necessary steps, and clarifying why those steps are expected to lead to meaningful change.
Practically, it can create a process for teams, stakeholders, and evaluators to engage in meaningful dialogue about both the expected and actual effects of their actions, while also examining and challenging the assumptions that shape their understanding of how change occurs.
a short explanatory video on the difference between ToC and program logic frameworks and when to use them.
ToC and climate adaptation
A ToC is increasingly used in climate adaptation because it helps link immediate actions to a broader and flexible vision for long‑term change.
Unlike traditional logic models, ToC highlights how individual projects connect to wider programs and portfolios, making it easier to see how efforts reinforce one another. This broader view is important for ensuring that adaptation strategies work together and do not unintentionally create new risks.
By clarifying assumptions and relationships, ToC can help practitioners to better detect and avoid maladaptation and design interventions that better support resilience.
Getting started on a ToC
There are many ways to develop a ToC. Here we link to some examples that describe how to develop a ToC for a specific purpose.
UKSIP
Developed by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), this briefing note outlines a process of developing a climate adaptation ToC, some pitfalls and tips, and a worked examples.
The process for developing a ToC includes:
- Define the long‑term change (e.g., reduced climate vulnerability).
- Backward‑map intermediate outcomes and necessary preconditions.
- Identify activities/inputs that plausibly deliver those preconditions.
- Surface assumptions (technical, behavioral, institutional) and contextual risks/uncertainties.
- Specify indicators and an evaluation plan to test the pathway and assumptions over time.
- Iterate and update the ToC as evidence and context evolve.
Developed by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), this briefing note outlines a process of developing a climate adaptation ToC, some pitfalls and tips, and a worked examples.
The process for developing a ToC includes:
- Define the long‑term change (e.g., reduced climate vulnerability).
- Backward‑map intermediate outcomes and necessary preconditions.
- Identify activities/inputs that plausibly deliver those preconditions.
- Surface assumptions (technical, behavioral, institutional) and contextual risks/uncertainties.
- Specify indicators and an evaluation plan to test the pathway and assumptions over time.
- Iterate and update the ToC as evidence and context evolve.
UKSIP
Developed by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), this briefing note outlines a process of developing a climate adaptation ToC, some pitfalls and tips, and a worked examples.
The process for developing a ToC includes:
- Define the long‑term change (e.g., reduced climate vulnerability).
- Backward‑map intermediate outcomes and necessary preconditions.
- Identify activities/inputs that plausibly deliver those preconditions.
- Surface assumptions (technical, behavioral, institutional) and contextual risks/uncertainties.
- Specify indicators and an evaluation plan to test the pathway and assumptions over time.
- Iterate and update the ToC as evidence and context evolve.
The process for developing a ToC includes:
- Define the long‑term change (e.g., reduced climate vulnerability).
- Backward‑map intermediate outcomes and necessary preconditions.
- Identify activities/inputs that plausibly deliver those preconditions.
- Surface assumptions (technical, behavioral, institutional) and contextual risks/uncertainties.
- Specify indicators and an evaluation plan to test the pathway and assumptions over time.
- Iterate and update the ToC as evidence and context evolve.
The Theory of Change tool within the Community Impact Planner helps organisations clearly articulate the change they want to create and how their project will deliver it.
The tool guides users to describe the issue or opportunity they aim to address, outline project activities, and identify the intended outcomes, forming a high‑level narrative of their project’s logic and purpose.
Designed for practical project planning, the tool prompts users to think about what needs to be in place for their project to succeed, including resources, risks, and external factors. It provide a foundation for more detailed planning through complementary tools like the logic model and outcomes measurement plan.
Together, these tools support users to identify indicators of change, plan data collection, and clarify team roles and timelines - creating a robust pathway from project vision to measurable impact. The platform also connects users to additional support
the Community Impact tool https://tool.communityimpacthub.wa.gov.au/theory-of-change