At a glance
A second pass assessment:
- focuses on specific sectors, locations, or issues identified as at risk in the first pass assessment
- combines national and local data with expert and stakeholder knowledge
- uses standard risk frameworks to assess likelihood and consequences
- informs adaptation options, planning, and ongoing stakeholder engagement.
What is a second pass risk assessment
Building on the information gathered during a first‑pass risk screening and an overall understanding of the adaptation planning cycle, a second‑pass risk assessment focuses on specific sectors, locations, or issues that have been identified as being at risk.
A second‑pass assessment typically draws on national data products as well as relevant local information from previous studies and reports. Importantly, it combines these data sources with local and expert knowledge to assess both the likelihood of climate change risks and the consequences if those risks occur.
Definition of risk
Risk is defined in various ways across the scientific literature (Brooks 2003; Downing et al. 2005; Haimes 2009; Sarewitz et al. 2003; IPCC 2014). This assessment adopts the definition used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (WGII):
(Risk is) the potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values. Risk is often represented as probability of occurrence of hazardous events (likelihood) or trends multiplied by the impacts (or consequences) if these events or trends occur. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and hazard.
IPCC 2014.
What can a second‑pass risk assessment achieve?
Many organisations manage and report risks using established risk‑based frameworks. These typically align with International Organization for Standardization (ISO) guidelines or industry‑specific adaptations (e.g. AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009, AS 5334:2013).
Applying this risk‑based approach to a second‑pass climate change assessment allows organisations to work within their existing risk management frameworks and familiar terminology to assess their climate change risk. This apporach can use national, state, regional, and local data, combined with expert judgement, to assess the likelihood and consequences of risks. As a result, second‑pass assessments are an effective starting point for structured discussions about climate change risks among internal and external stakeholders.
A second‑pass risk assessment can:
- prompt informed discussion about climate change risks within and beyond the organisation
- help identify broad climate change risks and highlight where more detailed data or analysis is required
- enable climate change risks to be assessed using an organisation’s existing risk management framework
- provide a foundation for identifying adaptation options and developing an adaptation plan
- support ongoing stakeholder engagement throughout the adaptation process
your understanding of:
- the three types of risk assessments
- how this fits within a decision support framework (C-CADS)
How to undertake a second pass risk assessment
The second‑pass risk assessment process consists of four key steps, outlined in Figure 1. Effective stakeholder engagement, both internal and external, is essential, as expert and local knowledge is critical for understanding potential climate change impacts and their consequences.
Before commencing a second‑pass risk assessment, users should be familiar with relevant CoastAdapt resources that support this process.
The four steps of the second pass risk assessment.
Fig second pass
The four steps of the second pass risk assessment.
CoastAdapt resources on: