Climate change is already affecting Australia’s coasts, communities, infrastructure and ecosystems. Observed impacts include rising sea levels, increasing coastal inundation risk, coastal erosion, more intense rainfall, marine heatwaves and compound extreme events.

Together, these changes increase the likelihood of impacts on community health and wellbeing, loss or degradation of coastal ecosystems, disruption to essential services, and damage to public and private assets.

Climate change risk assessment helps organisations understand what could be affected, how, and when, so they can make informed, defensible decisions about adaptation. For local governments and other place-based organisations, it provides a structured way to move from general awareness of climate change to clear priorities for action.

Risk assessment does not remove uncertainty, nor does it predict the future. Instead, it supports better decisions under uncertainty by identifying what matters most, where vulnerabilities lie, and which risks warrant further investigation or action.

Climate change risks vary significantly from place to place. Local geography, coastal processes, land use, demographics, governance arrangements and economic activities all influence how climate hazards translate into impacts.

A local‑scale climate change risk assessment allows organisations to:

• account for place‑specific characteristics, values and priorities
• understand how climate change interacts with existing local risks
• identify which communities, assets, services or ecosystems are most at risk
• support practical, locally relevant adaptation decisions.

Local, place‑based risk assessments differ from regional or national assessments, which are designed to inform policy directions and funding priorities rather than place‑specific planning or operational decisions.

For councils, utilities and service providers, local‑scale risk assessment is essential for informing land‑use planning, asset management, service continuity and investment decisions.

Local‑scale risk assessments are a critical input to adaptation planning for communities and organisations that operate at the local level. Because climate risks are highly location‑specific, a local‑scale assessment considers how climate change affects existing local circumstances and land uses, as well as how it may create new risks.

In practice, a local‑scale risk assessment helps to:

• Identify what is at risk
  Determine which parts of a local community, services, businesses or ecosystems may be affected. For example, a council‑owned sewage treatment plant, a key transport route, or a coastal wetland.
  
• Understand local risk drivers
  Examine how local conditions influence risk. Is critical infrastructure located in an erosion‑prone coastal zone? Do service routes pass through low‑lying areas susceptible to flooding during storm surge events?
  
• Assess consequences of disruption
  Consider how disruption of critical infrastructure (or its components) affects the services it provides. How many people would be affected? For how long? What would be the social, environmental or economic consequences?
  
• Consider ecosystems and natural assets
  Identify important coastal and marine ecosystems, their vulnerability to climate change impacts, and their capacity to adapt over time.

Climate change can generate a wide range of risks that differ in timing, scale, pathways and severity.

Understanding these distinctions helps organisations avoid focusing only on immediate hazards and instead consider how climate risks may interact, evolve and intensify over time, progressively altering risk profiles over decades.

These risks can be understood in different ways.

• Acute risks arise from discrete extreme events such as storm surge, flooding or heatwaves.
• Chronic risks develop gradually as climate conditions change, for example through sea-level rise or long-term shoreline erosion.

• Direct risks occur when climate hazards directly damage assets, infrastructure or ecosystems.
• Indirect risks arise through disruptions to interconnected systems, such as transport, energy water services, supply chains, economic activity or social systems.
• Climate risks can also interact. Compounding and cascading risks occur when multiple hazards occur together, or when impacts in one system trigger consequences in another, amplifying overall impacts and potentially creating system-wide disruptions.

Climate-related risks can be grouped into three broad categories that reflect the sources of risk faced by organisations and economies:

• Physical risks, resulting from the direct impacts of climate hazards (such as extreme weather events, sea-level rise or long-term changes in climate patterns).
• Transition risks, that arise from economic, technological, policy or social changes associated with the transition to a low-emissions economy.
• Liability risks, that may occur if organisations face legal or regulatory consequences for failing to adequately manage, disclose or respond to climate-related risks.

Risk assessment is a foundational component of adaptation planning, not a stand-alone activity. The CoastAdapt decision support framework (C‑CADS) provides guidance and resources to support local‑scale climate change risk assessment through a tiered approach that includes three levels of assessment:

• First-pass assessment (screening): A quick, straightforward way to get an overview of exposure to climate change risk.
• Second-pass assessment: A standard risk assessment using readily available data and expert judgment.
• Detailed (third-pass) assessment: Applied when earlier assessments indicate high risk. This involves evaluating a fine-scale, targeted information and data, which can be costly and often requires contracting specialist consultants.

The outputs of a risk assessment tend to include priority risks and risk registers, which inform:

• identification of adaptation options
• sequencing of actions over time
• development of adaptation pathways
• monitoring and review as conditions change.

A common misconception is that climate change risk assessment requires costly, high‑resolution data. In practice, data requirements depend on the purpose of the assessment and the level of risk being explored.

• First pass and second pass assessments often rely on existing datasets, published projections, local knowledge and expert judgement.
• Third pass assessments are more detailed and may require targeted data such as high‑resolution elevation models, detailed coastal or hydrodynamic modelling, or downscaled climate projections.

The need for detailed data depends on:

• the level of risk identified
• the decisions the assessment is intended to support.

For example, assessments informing major infrastructure design may require detailed data, while assessments supporting early engagement or strategic planning generally do not.

Common challenges of undertaking risk assessments include:

• over-scoping assessments beyond available resources
• focusing on hazards without considering consequences
• confusing risk assessment with risk treatment
• presenting overly complex results that are difficult to use in decision-making

Good practice involves being clear about purpose, keeping assessments proportionate, involving relevant expertise, and communicating results in a way that supports action.